Miss betting on football? We got you covered on the first NFL betting opportunity of the season, as Questionable Lock’s Carson Marsh looks at the best NFL prop bets for this coming Thursday’s 2021 NFL Draft.
Kyle Pitts Draft Position Under 5.5 (-180)
Don’t be mistaken, Florida TE Kyle Pitts is the best player in this draft. If quarterbacks weren’t such a hot commodity in the NFL draft, Pitts would be the unanimous choice at number one. While Pitts seems (questionably) locked to go #4 to the Atlanta Falcons, the uncertainty over which quarterback is being taken at #3 could make this a risky bet at -180 odds. If the 49ers do in fact draft Alabama’s QB Mac Jones, then several teams could be willing to trade up to the Falcons position to take QBs Justin Fields or Trey Lance. In this scenario, a bettor would then be relying on the Bengals to pick Pitts over WR Ja’Marr Chase, OL Penei Sewell, or OL Rashawn Slater. Take this bet if you think the QB trade market will not heat up as previously mentioned.
Expected Landing Spot: 4th to the Atlanta Falcons
DeVonta Smith Draft Position Under 11.5 (-120)
Smith is a Heisman winning wide receiver who is somehow being overshadowed by other receivers in this draft. While the argument for Chase being the better prospect is understandable, the idea that Smith should be taken after his Alabama teammate Jaylen Waddle is perplexing to say the least. Smith filled in as the number one option for Alabama’s offense this season after Waddle went down with an ACL tear and he never looked back. Knock on the 2020 SEC Player of the Year’s 170lb weight all you want, but this receiver should be in consideration with Chase as the first receiver taken.
Expected Landing Spot: 7th to the Detroit Lions
Caleb Farley Draft Position Over 23.5 (+110)
Caleb Farley’s offseason back surgery tanked his draft stock. Once the highest rated corner in this draft class, Farley risks slipping out of the first round due to this injury and his limited tape at Virginia Tech. While defensive-back is a need for many teams, expect Farley to slip as other names like Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, and Greg Newsome II gain more and more traction ahead of Thursday’s draft.
Expected Landing Spot: 29th to the Green Bay Packers
First RB To Be Taken – Najee Harris (-160)
While it may not be the best value bet, it will be shocking if Alabama’s Najee Harris isn’t the first running back taken off the board Thursday. Given the pedigree of Alabama running backs in the NFL (think Henry, Drake, Ingram), expect a RB-needy team to take the 6’2, 229lb refrigerator in the first round. While Harris’s usage at Alabama has been put under a microscope, the big back offers plenty more upside than his draft class counterparts in T. Etienne (+150) and J. Williams (+650). Harris could start day one and provide immediate help to NFL offenses in need of both an any-down back or just a third-down back.
Expected Landing Spot: 18th to the Miami Dolphins
First Safety To Be Taken – Trevon Moehrig (-400)
TCU’s Trevon Moehrig is the best safety in this draft class by far. The leader in FBS pass-breakups the last two seasons, Moehrig is by-leaps-and-bounds far above his competition in Washington’s Elijah Molden and Indiana’s Jamar Johnson. Slated to be the lone safety selected in the first round by nearly every mock draft, Moehrig is still a work in progress but a player that many teams will be enticed to take with his positional size and potential. -400 is not a steep price to pay for this bet.
Expected Landing Spot: 25th to the Jacksonville Jaguars
Kwity Paye Draft Position Under 17.5 (-140)
Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye has perhaps the best story in the NFL Draft. While I am not going to botch the retelling of it, it undoubtedly plays a big role into who Paye is and how NFL teams view the rare talent. It is only fitting then that Paye’s extraordinary story is matched by his extraordinary talent. At Michigan, Paye earned Academic All Big-Ten Honors two years in a row and he recorded a 4.52 40 yard dash in his Pro-Day some weeks back. The 261 pound lineman seems poised to be the first defensive end taken in this draft.
Expected Landing Spot: 14th to the Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Surtain II Draft Position Over 9.5 (-160)
Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II has been targeted by the Dallas Cowboys at #10 for some time now. While it could be argued that Surtain II isn’t even the best DB prospect in this draft, it won’t end up mattering for this bet because the top 10 will be enraged in a QB and offensive frenzy. Despite the Panthers needing corner help at #8, their biggest need is on the offensive line and they are apparently very willing to trade out of that spot. This bet potentially has the least amount of risk out of any of the previously mentioned, as Surtain II isn’t a prospect teams are going to jump the gun for.
Expected Landing Spot: 10th to the Dallas Cowboys